A pointed question from the audience said that probability sampling was the theoretical basis for the projectability of survey research and asked what the scientific underpinnings were for assuming that Internet research was similarly representative.  Melanie [the presenter] answered that replicability is emerging as the standard instead of randomization and that the results from her research were replicable.

A new study led by Stanford University researchers raises doubts about the accuracy of one of the most common forms of survey research, polls done among people who sign up to fill in questionnaires via the internet in exchange for cash and gifts.

In the most extensive such analysis to date, David Yeager and Prof. Jon Krosnick compared seven non-random internet surveys with two surveys based instead on random or so-called probability samples. The non-probability internet surveys were less accurate, and customary adjustments did not uniformly improve them.

While the random-sample surveys were “consistently highly accurate,” the internet surveys based on self-selected or “opt-in” panels “were always less accurate, on average, than probability sample surveys, and were less consistent in their level of accuracy,” the researchers said. Further, they said, adjusting these samples to known population values had no effect on accuracy (and in one case even worsened it) as often as that process, known as weighting, improved it.

Tags: Affluence Research, survey of the affluent, survey of the wealthy
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In November 2008, Newsweek published an article stating that the American affluent population was “experiencing an unfamiliar emotion:  luxury shame”.  The article, as well as several others that have appeared in various media since then, explained that across America, the affluent population was straying from conspicuous consumption, and engaging in “stealth wealth” because conspicuous consumption just didn’t feel right in these difficult economic times even though the affluent could still afford the finer things in life.

According to a recent tracking study of the wealthiest 10% of US households, the American Affluence Research Center found that in fact a mere 7% of survey respondents indicated any signs of luxury shame or stealth wealth.  For those who did reduce spending because of their self-consciousness, they did so an average of only 4.5 times during the year.  Vacations, new cars, and dining out were the three biggest categories where this small share of the affluent consumer market reduced its spending due to luxury shame.

Despite the fact that 41% of survey respondents acknowledged feeling self-conscious about being in a better financial situation than those around them, we see that not many felt badly enough to change their spending habits because of appearances.  Rather, respondents were more likely to have indicated a change in spending habits due to uncertainty when the economy will recover, decline in value of investments/savings, and a desire to spend less and save more.

It seems the media has it wrong.  Although luxury retailers have seen declines of 10-25% during this recession, those declines are most attributable to “aspirational” consumers who were living beyond their means but can no longer afford to do so.  The change in spending habits of aspirational consumers has given the biggest blow to luxury retailers.  The true affluent have reduced only some spending due to declining net worth, but the truth for the affluent market seems to be that old habits die hard.  Especially spending habits.

The national survey included 684 affluent men and women with an average of $300,000 household income, $3.1 million average household net worth, and $1.2 million average value of their primary home.

Tags: Affluence Research, affluence surveys, affluent market, luxury, luxury research, luxury travel, survey of the affluent, survey of the wealthy
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Obama’s Support Among Women and Independents Offsets McCain’s Strength with Men

Contrary to conventional wisdom that the wealthy are staunch Republican voters, Obama and McCain each received 48% of the votes among likely voters in a new survey of the wealthiest 10% of US households. About 4% of the likely voters indicated they had not made a decision or were supporting another candidate.

With 552 respondents, the national survey is representative of the wealthiest 11.4 million households (as defined by net worth in the most recent Federal Reserve Board research) that will account for almost 25% of all votes to be cast in the presidential election. The survey was completed September 25 by the American Affluence Research Center in Atlanta.

The survey participants have an average income of $304,000 and an average net worth of $3.1 million. The respondents reported party affiliations of 42% as Republicans, 30% as Democrats (due to 39% share among women), and 27% as Independents.

Men favored McCain 59% to 36% for Obama, while women favored Obama 61% to 36% for McCain. Independents favored Obama 55% to 34% for McCain.

The source of McCain’s support was 80% from people who considered themselves Republicans, 19% from Independents, and 1% from Democrats. The source of Obama’s support was 63% from Democrats, 31% from Independents, and 6% from Republicans.

Of 18 possible issues that were listed, the five issues most important to McCain’s supporters are state of the economy (48%), war on terrorism (33%), war in Iraq (29%), long term energy program (29%), and 2001 Bush tax cuts (27%).

The issues most important to Obama’s supporters are the economy (59%), war in Iraq (55%), universal health care (28%), foreign policy (28%), and energy program (26%).

Additional data is available in categories defined by gender, age, income, and net worth and will be included in the report for The Affluent Market Tracking Study #14, a unique survey conducted twice a year to identify the outlook of the wealthy for the economy, the stock market, their personal income, and their spending plans for over 20 different products and services.

AARC provides marketing research, mailing lists, and consulting services to businesses that focus on the affluent. For more information: Ron Kurtz at KurtzGroup@comcast.net or 770-740-2200 .

Tags: Affluence Research, survey of the affluent, survey of the wealthy
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