October, 2012 – This article from Barrons discusses the high percentage of undecided voters among the affluent in the upcoming presidential election. (http://blogs.barrons.com/penta/2012/10/15/rich-still-waffling-on-presidential-pick/)
By Christiana Cefalu
Contrary to popular opinion, the affluent haven’t lined up solidly behind their presidential choice. They are, in fact, among the most undecided group of voters.
That’s the finding of The American Affluence Research Center’s twice-yearly Affluent Market Tracking Study, which offers some insight into the politics of the wealthiest 10% of American households.
In the survey of 435 individuals with a minimum net worth of $800,000, a surprising 16% haven’t picked a presidential candidate. That’s double the 6% to 8% of undecided voters Gallup found among the general population, while the Affluent Market Tracking Study was taking place. Of the respondents who are undecided: 22% identified themselves as Republicans and 20% identified themselves as Democrats.
Why so many on the fence? Head of the American Affluence Research Center, Ron Kurtz, says, “I think this is a more discerning, thoughtful group of voters.†As politicians are wont to do, “both candidates have been evasive with details of their plans…and [the respondents] want to make a fact-based decision.â€
Kurtz also notes, however, that according to the survey, the priorities of the undecided are more closely aligned with the priorities of Romney’s supporters than with Obama’s supporters. Hot-button issues for Romney’s supporters are plans for an economic recovery, balancing the federal budget, plans to create new jobs, and reducing the federal debt. “That may be an indication that as they make up their minds, they’ll be more likely to vote for Romney.†Key issues for Obama’s supporters are universal health care, economic recovery, Medicare, and a pro-choice stance on abortion.
What also surprised Kurtz is that only 42% of respondents affiliated themselves with the Republican Party; 29% identified themselves as Democrats, 26% as independents. Independents are more or less evenly split in the upcoming election: 32% said they are likely to vote for Obama, 32% for Romney, and 34% remain undecided.
If the surveyed group were the sole voters in November, Romney would indeed beat Obama, with 48% vs. 35% of the support. Also interesting to note that in this surveyed set, Romney’s well-publicized gender gap disappears. Among affluent female respondents, 50% support Romney and 35% support Obama.
Of the 48% of respondents who voted for Obama in 2008, just 66% plan to do the same in November; 19% are still undecided and 15% have shifted their allegiance to Romney.
However, on the passion front – important for determining who will actually go to the polls to vote – it appears that Obama supporters are slightly more fervent, with 91% of his supporters claiming they “definitely will†vote in November, while 89% of Romney’s supporters said the same. In a close election, that 2% “passion†spread can ultimately determine who will be the next president. Of the relative large group still undecided, 28% said they were also “not sure†whether or not they would cast a vote at all, making their Romney-leanings of questionable value to the presidential contender.