October, 2013 – This article from Seatrade Insider discusses results from the AARC Fall 2013 study indicating a sharp increase in the affluents’ intent to cruise in the next 12 months. (http://www.seatrade-insider.com/news/news-headlines/affluent-us-market-intent-to-cruise-rebounds-to-pre-carnival-triumph-levels.html?nspPage=1)
A survey of the wealthiest 10% of US households found that intentions to cruise during the next 12 months rose to 16%, almost a 50% jump over the spring survey which followed the Carnival Triumph fire and a string of other ship incidents.
The American Affluence Research Center’s spring survey had found that only 11% of the wealthiest US households intended to cruise in the next 12 months, a record low since AARC began its tracking studies in 2002.
Since then, intentions to cruise have been as high as 22% (Fall 2007 survey) and have typically ranged from 15% to 19%.
The higher intentions to cruise are consistent with the relatively positive mood of the affluent survey respondents, whose overall view of current business conditions is 40 points above the Fall 2012 survey and at a six-year high (index of 93), according to AARC president Ron Kurtz.
Spending plans for the eight major expenditures and the 17 products and services tracked by these surveys of the affluent are about the same as or a little stronger than the prior two surveys. The AARC surveys are representative of the 11.4m households that account for about half of all consumer spending.
Other good news for the luxury cruise lines is that plans to cruise during the next 12 months among their primary source markets—the wealthiest 5% (those with a minimum net worth of $1.5m) and the more mature (age 60-plus) groups—were at 20% and 22% respectively. Over two-thirds of the affluent say they expect to spend more or the same for international vacation travel during the next year as they did during the prior 12 months.
At 16% of a population of more than 11m affluent households, an estimated 1.8m households or 3.6m total cruisers will take a sea-going vacation over the next 12 months, Kurtz said.
The former president and chief marketing officer of several cruise lines noted that this number of affluent cruisers far exceeds the capacity of the luxury lines and indicates the affluent will continue to be an important source of business for the premium and contemporary cruise lines.
About 9% of the affluent who indicated they are undecided about taking a cruise represent an additional 2.1m potential cruisers.
Men (19%) seemed more likely than women (10%) to plan a cruise. Kurtz said the gender difference was perhaps at least partially explained by the fact that 29% of the women have no spouse versus only 7% of the men having no spouse. There was little difference in plans to cruise among those with $200,000-plus income and those with lower income.
The Fall 2013 Affluent Market Tracking Study #24 is based on a national sample of 327 men and women who have an average annual household income of $295,000, an average primary residence value of $1.3m, an average net worth of $3.1m and average investable assets of $1.7m.
Survey details are here.