October, 2012 – This article from the National Jeweler discusses the 2012 holiday spending plans of the affluent and how events in the fall may impact sales. (http://www.nationaljeweler.com/nj/independents/a/~29790-Affluents-holiday-spend-to-increase)
Atlanta–More wealthy consumers plan to buy Christmas and Hanukah presents this year though they will spend slightly less, resulting in a small increase in total holiday sales among affluents, the fall 2012 survey from the Atlanta-based American Affluence Research Center (AARC) shows.
The AARC publishes surveys twice yearly that track the spending habits of wealthy consumers, defined by AARC as those with an income of $285,000 a year and a net worth of $3.1 million, with a primary residence worth $1.2 million.
Ron Kurtz, president and founder of the AARC, called the 2 to 3 percent estimate potentially low, though, noting that what happens in the fall prior to the start of the shopping season will impact sales.
“This could be a conservative estimate, depending on how the stock market and businesses respond to the 2012 elections and the actions of Congress during the lame-duck session between November and the end of the year,†he said.
Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, wrote last week that holiday sales to affluent consumers would increase more sharply if Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama.
Other highlights from the AARC’s survey include:
– This year, 93 percent of affluent consumers plan to buy Christmas or Hanukah gifts, up from 91 percent in 2011. In 2010, it was 88 percent and in 2009, 91 percent. Even though the percentage is up this year, it is still not matching the pre-recession high of 97 percent reached in 2006.
– A total of 77 percent of affluent consumers said they will spend more (71 percent) or the same (6 percent) on holiday gifts than they did in 2011. The remaining 23 percent said they will spend less.
– With 6 percent spending more (an average of 11 percent more) and 23 percent saying they will spend less (an average of 13 percent less), the weighted average change in spending per household is estimated to be -2 percent.
– The estimate for 2012 household spending among affluents is $2,102 per household, for a total of $22.3 billion spent on holiday gifts. That is slightly less than the $2,154 spent in 2011, though the larger number of households buying gifts will offset the small decline in spending.
– The intent to buy holiday gifts escalates as income rises, and as age and net worth decline, an indicator that older respondents have fewer people to buy for and spend less on gifts.
The AARC’s prediction of a 2 to 3 percent increase in holiday sales among affluents mirrors the general forecasts of ShopperTrak, which predicted retail sales will increase 3 percent, and the National Retail Federation, which forecasted a 4 percent increase.